Sales of Aranesp is declining, there are even rumors that the patent to expire 2011 to allow generic manufacturers to offer this important medication more affordable. The price of Amgen therefore against the general stock exchange trend from 85 to 40 USD has declined since mid-2005. …AND bone loss in the feverish search for a successful successor product that can restore the growth rate of the company, a milestone has been reached on the weekend: Denosumab, short D-mab, is the drug that has successfully completed just the phase III of clinical trials. Harriet Walter usually is spot on. D-mab stabilizes the bones of cancer patients. Due to the chemotherapy it comes increasingly to osteoporosis, bone loss, so accumulating bone fractures. Last weekend, it was reported that phase III of the tests have successfully demonstrated that there were fewer bone fractures, without any significant side effects were recorded.
The detailed test results are presented only in September. Soon the application for approval of D-mab at FDA are designed now. Analysts expect that this drug can p.a. heave the currently anemic growth of 4% p.a. on 11%.
ASSESSMENT level: innovative research facilities that enter the markets with new drugs are back IN the League of the biotech company growth stocks. So it has made in the 90s before Amgen, Genentech, Gilead, have it now Biogen and imitated Celgene. Large growth rates lead to a high valuation levels. But if growth ends, the sales are stagnant, then follows a new assessment: the assessment level adapts to established pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer, Roche and Bayer. The growth companies in the biotech industry are currently rated a p/e ratio of about 30, the established pharmaceutical companies have a p/e ratio under 15. The p/e ratio by Amgen was last month at 14, today it jumped to 22. Because, in advance of the test results to D-mab positive partial results leaked and the rate began to rise.